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Welcome to the TurtlePox Project

TurtlePox is:

If you'd like to jump straight to the results of the project, there's a strain summary and a map that plots all the "infections" and lets you explore their details. They'll make more sense if you read on and get an idea of what the project is all about.

TurtlePox is not:

The Idea

The idea is this: I start each "strain" of the "virus" (hereafter refered to without quotes, under the assumption that you get by now that it's not a real virus) by sending a special e-mail to someone I know. Once this person becomes "infected," whether they realize it or not, they have a limited "incubation" grace period, after which the virus has a pre-defined chance of "killing" them. During this incubation period, if the person clicks on a special link in the e-mail, they will have the opportunity to:

  1. Provide some basic information about themselves to make the social network model more interesting (this part is 100% optional)
  2. "Mutate" the virus by altering some characteristic(s) of it
  3. Pass on the virus to one or more friends

The "mutation" may involve both changing a programmatic characteristic of the virus (e.g. the length of the incubation period) and changing the actual subject line or body of the e-mail message itself. This is the "collective writing project" part. Each person is only allowed to perform a single mutation, and the object of that mutation is chosen at random by the system. However, the content of the mutuation is chosen by the infected party. So, for instance, if the system asks you to change the second paragraph of the message, that's the only thing you'll be allowed to change, but you can make it say whatever you want! Infected parties are free to mutate the virus in a way that they think will make it more or less "deadly," according to their taste.

Once the mutation is complete, the infected party will have an opportunity to enter the e-mail addresses of friends or acquaintances and pass the (mutated) virus on to them. The e-mail sent to the newly infected party (or parties) will always contain the actual sender's e-mail address in the "from" header, so it's always clear exactly who is passing the TurtlePox along, although the message itself is determined and sent by the TurtlePox system.

Once the incubation period is over, the system randomly determines if the infected party "survives" or "perishes". If the infected person dies, it's game over for her. However, if she lives, she becomes a "carrier" for the virus, permanently immunized against it (at that address, at least) and able to cause one more round of infections, if she chooses to do so.

What's the point?

Well, there are a few. First of all, it's an interesting (if extremely rough) simulation of how real viruses evolve. Each person is allowed to make only incremental changes to the virus. However, over enough iterations, we can expect to see certain kinds of trends that parallel real life, e.g. very deadly viruses with short incubation periods tend not to spread well, while the common cold is everywhere.

Second, I think it will be quite amusing to see what different people write in the message itself, as they try to convince others to click (or not to click) on the participation link, especially given the constraint that one can't really do anything about the message outside of one's particular paragraph or subject line. I expect to see some creative, off-the-wall stuff, as well as some subtler attempts. Once the project reaches a critical mass I'll be creating a "best of" page to catalog my favorite bits. For now, you can browse the results yourself on the map plot.

Third, the project will reveal some interesting things about the patterns that e-mail viruses (and other communication) follow when they spread. Again, you can check out the strain summary or the map to see how it's going.

Contact

If you have any questions or comments about the TurtlePox project, feel free to write me (Michael) at turtlepox@RollingTurtleSANS-SPAM.com (without the SANS-SPAM, of course).

This page last modified 12/30/2004.
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